注册 登录  
 加关注
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

王福重的博客 写给中国人的经济学

哀民生之多艰

 
 
 

日志

 
 
关于我

经济学家。1993年在中央财经大学获经济学硕士学位,1998年获博士学位,1999-2001年在北京大学博士后流动站进行研究工作。著有畅销书《人人都爱经济学》,发表学术论文100余篇。是中国世界经济学学会理事。《上海证券报》等多家媒体专栏主笔,凤凰卫视特约评论嘉宾。任何事宜,请通过联系。

网易考拉推荐

When economy hits bottom, how will we know?   

2009-07-24 15:37:05|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

  •    Global Times >

      July 13  2009

     By Wang Fuzhong

 

There is heated debate as to whether or not China’s economy has hit bottom.

The key question we need to ask is: how do we know if the economy has hit bottom?

The upturning stock market doesn’t signal that the economic bottom has been reached. One theory goes that the stock market is the leading indicator and its growth signifies that the economy will get better.

But the timetable for recovery is a matter of debate and the evidence is mixed. For instance, the economy peaked between 2003 and 2005, but the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges performed only averagely or even poorly during that period.

Since last December, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have improved, as the Shanghai composite index soared from 1,600 to more than 3,000 points. As a result, some presume that China’s economy is recovering. But it’s largely because of other factors that stocks are surging: the huge slump last year, relaxed monetary policies, the temporary halt of IPOs and other favorable policies. But these measures are not related to the health of the economy.

GDP growth is not an indicator either. Almost all the current GDP growth can be attributed to China’s stimulus package. It shows that Keynesian theory still works, not that the economy is getting better. Keynes said the effect of fiscal policies depends on the non-government investment stimulated by government input.

Even if fiscal policies don’t boost non-government investment, consumption or net exports, the GDP could still grow as long as the government invests enough. But this is unsustainable.

If personal disposable income and non-government investment don’t increase, the growing GDP will only advance to a certain level, and since stimulus funds can’t continue indefinitely, the GDP will stop growing. It hasn’t been proved that non-government investment and consumption grow in opposite relation to exports.

Fiscal revenue doesn’t indicate that the economy has bottomed out. This May, fiscal revenue rose by 4.8 percent, the first time after the seven-month slip since last October. Many factors contributed to the sudden increase. Fuel oil tax reform led to a sharp increase of consumption tax, the real estate market unexpectedly warmed up and increased property sales generated more business taxes, which in turn increased land-transfer fees.

However, these indicators don’t reflect the macro-economy at all. Because of the unbalanced revenue and expenditure, the Ministry of Finance has just announced that it will increase the consumption tax on high-end alcohol, and will levy new taxes like an environmental tax.

So it’s foreseeable that fiscal revenue will increase later on, but will the economy be better?

Some say inflation could signal economic recovery. But as the economist Milton Friedman suggested, any type of inflation is just a monetary phenomenon, a result of excessive fluidity. Inflation is possible if the relaxed monetary policy continues, and commercial bank loans keep growing. But stagflation is also possible.

So what might indicate economic recovery? I think a drop in unemployment. And I mean the real unemployment rate, not the “registered unemployment rate.” If GDP keeps growing, it will prove that the stimulus plan is working, and non-government investment and consumption are growing.

A booming economy requires more labor, the most essential part of the economy. Increased employment drives up consumption, which will boost the economy. Only when the economic growth relies on internal forces, can we announce an improvement in the economy.

But unemployment is the most serious problem of the day. About 20 million migrant workers and millions of college graduates are in want of jobs. More are feeling the pressure. This shows that the current economic recovery is not stable or dependable. The stimulus package has gone mainly into infrastructure, and can’t help with employment. This also indicates that people’s confidence is not completely restored. We still need to make more efforts in structural reform.

  评论这张
 
阅读(15954)| 评论(4)
推荐 转载

历史上的今天

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2017